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Paper Trading

Live simulation — every strategy starts with virtual $1,000 and trades against real Kalshi markets. No real money. Updated every scan.

Bitcoin 15-minute paper experiment

Compare opposite Bitcoin outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket after fees.

Paper only

The exchanges use different price sources. Both legs can lose. This is a research experiment with simulated fills, not guaranteed arbitrage.

Separate virtual cash for each venue. Kalshi fees reduce cash; Polymarket buy fees reduce shares received. Instant fills on both venues are assumed. Actual settlement outcomes are recorded independently. These results are separate from live earnings and the other paper strategies.

Kalshi paper cash
$495.20
Polymarket paper cash
$436.02
Closed pair P&L
$0.00
Closed / open pairs
0 / 15

Started with $500.00 on Kalshi and $500.00 on Polymarket. Last scan 1 minute ago.

5 contracts per leg, checked during the final 1.0–5.0 minutes. One pair per window, up to 10 per day, with a 5% cash budget per venue.

Settled legs awaiting their counterpart: -$4.80 realized. Included in risk checks; excluded from closed pair P&L.

Latest entry check: Outside entry window

Recent paired paper trades
Oct 16 11:00–11:15 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT160715-15

Kalshi NO · debit $0.30 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792148400

Polymarket Up · 4.975505 net shares · debit $4.65 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 21:15–21:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151730-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.02 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792098900

Polymarket Up · 4.997897 net shares · debit $4.97 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 18:15–18:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151430-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.90 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792088100

Polymarket Up · 4.926493 net shares · debit $3.95 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 17:15–17:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151330-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.12 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792084500

Polymarket Up · 4.989845 net shares · debit $4.86 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 17:00–17:15 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151315-15

Kalshi NO · debit $0.27 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792083600

Polymarket Up · 4.979000 net shares · debit $4.70 · Awaiting settlement

Last scan 12 minutes ago — 650 markets evaluated

Total trades

2,137

Win rate

86.4%

Realized P&L

+$425.50

$474.67 open

Open positions

26

🌤️ Weather

Balance $493.66
P&L $405.46
Open exposure $100.22
Win rate 88.2%
W / L 1757 / 234
Last trade 4 hours ago

🏆 Sports

Balance $1,313.62
P&L +$313.62
Open exposure $0.00
Win rate 40.7%
W / L 22 / 32
Last trade 1 week ago

₿ Crypto

Balance $1,517.11
P&L +$517.11
Open exposure $0.00
Win rate 95.7%
W / L 22 / 1
Last trade 5 days ago

Perpetuals

Paper orders 58
Closed orders 43
Closed P&L +$0.23
Open notional $374.45
Open orders 15
Long / Short 9 / 6
Last order 1 day ago

Recent Trades (last 30 days)

All Weather Sports Crypto Perps
Sports Oct 10 22:30

Navy wins

KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT10TLSANAVY-NAVY

NO 4¢ × 23.00 $0.92
Lost $0.99
Sports Oct 4 02:31

South Florida wins

KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT03TEMUSF-USF

YES 4¢ × 1729.00 $69.16
Lost $69.16
Sports Oct 4 00:02

South Carolina wins

KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT03UKSCAR-SCAR

YES 6¢ × 1213.00 $72.78
Lost $72.78

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