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Paper Trading

Live simulation — every strategy starts with virtual $1,000 and trades against real Kalshi markets. No real money. Updated every scan.

Bitcoin 15-minute paper experiment

Compare opposite Bitcoin outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket after fees.

Paper only

The exchanges use different price sources. Both legs can lose. This is a research experiment with simulated fills, not guaranteed arbitrage.

Separate virtual cash for each venue. Kalshi fees reduce cash; Polymarket buy fees reduce shares received. Instant fills on both venues are assumed. Actual settlement outcomes are recorded independently. These results are separate from live earnings and the other paper strategies.

Kalshi paper cash: $495.20
Polymarket paper cash: $436.02
Closed pair P&L: $0.00
Closed / open pairs: 0 / 15

Started with $500.00 on Kalshi and $500.00 on Polymarket. Last scan 26 seconds ago.

5 contracts per leg, checked during the final 1.0–5.0 minutes. One pair per window, up to 10 per day, with a 5% cash budget per venue.

Settled legs awaiting their counterpart: -$4.80 realized. Included in risk checks; excluded from closed pair P&L.

Latest entry check: Outside entry window

Recent paired paper trades

Oct 16 11:00–11:15 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT160715-15

Kalshi NO · debit $0.30 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792148400

Polymarket Up · 4.975505 net shares · debit $4.65 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 21:15–21:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151730-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.02 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792098900

Polymarket Up · 4.997897 net shares · debit $4.97 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 18:15–18:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151430-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.90 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792088100

Polymarket Up · 4.926493 net shares · debit $3.95 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 17:15–17:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151330-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.12 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792084500

Polymarket Up · 4.989845 net shares · debit $4.86 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 17:00–17:15 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151315-15

Kalshi NO · debit $0.27 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792083600

Polymarket Up · 4.979000 net shares · debit $4.70 · Awaiting settlement

Last scan 1 minute ago — 1,228 markets evaluated

Total trades

2,137

Win rate

86.4%

Realized P&L

+$425.50

$474.67 open

Open positions

🌤️ Weather

Balance $493.66

P&L $405.46

Open exposure $100.22

Win rate 88.2%

W / L 1757 / 234

Last trade 4 hours ago

🏆 Sports

Balance $1,313.62

P&L +$313.62

Open exposure $0.00

Win rate 40.7%

W / L 22 / 32

Last trade 1 week ago

₿ Crypto

Balance $1,517.11

P&L +$517.11

Open exposure $0.00

Win rate 95.7%

W / L 22 / 1

Last trade 5 days ago

Perpetuals

Paper orders 58

Closed orders 43

Closed P&L +$0.23

Open notional $374.45

Open orders 15

Long / Short 9 / 6

Last order 1 day ago

Recent Trades (last 30 days)

All Weather Sports Crypto Perps

Perps Oct 21 17:30

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

LONG $13.5608 × 1.84 $24.95

Stop Loss $2.51

Perps Oct 20 14:15

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

LONG $12.2567 × 2.03 $24.88

Take Profit +$2.61

Perps Oct 15 09:01

0.01 BCH

KXBCHPERP

LONG $2.6412 × 9.46 $24.99

Paper Open +$0.86

Perps Oct 14 13:30

1 NEAR

KXNEARPERP

SHORT $4.9983 × 5.00 $24.99

Paper Open +$0.59

Perps Oct 14 12:30

0.1 HYPE

KXHYPEPERP

SHORT $8.1099 × 3.08 $24.98

Paper Open +$1.16

Perps Oct 12 23:16

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

SHORT $11.9435 × 2.09 $24.96

Take Profit +$2.78

Perps Oct 10 09:01

1 NEAR

KXNEARPERP

LONG $5.2745 × 4.73 $24.95

Take Profit +$2.57

Perps Oct 9 22:03

1K kSHIB

KXKSHIBPERP

LONG $5.4710 × 4.56 $24.95

Stop Loss $2.76

Perps Oct 8 17:31

1 NEAR

KXNEARPERP

SHORT $4.5345 × 5.51 $24.99

Stop Loss $2.59

Perps Oct 8 16:15

1 UNI

KXUNIPERP

LONG $7.1802 × 3.48 $24.99

Paper Open $0.55

Perps Oct 8 15:16

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

SHORT $11.6791 × 2.14 $24.99

Stop Loss $2.56

Perps Oct 8 13:01

0.1 VVV

KXVVVPERP

SHORT $2.2543 × 11.08 $24.98

Stop Loss $2.62

Perps Oct 7 10:45

1 UNI

KXUNIPERP

SHORT $7.9911 × 3.12 $24.93

Take Profit +$2.53

Perps Oct 5 14:45

0.01 BCH

KXBCHPERP

SHORT $3.1417 × 7.95 $24.98

Take Profit +$2.67

Perps Oct 2 11:15

0.1 VVV

KXVVVPERP

LONG $3.0066 × 8.31 $24.98

Stop Loss $2.52

Perps Oct 1 17:00

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

SHORT $13.4243 × 1.86 $24.97

Take Profit +$2.56

Perps Oct 1 16:15

1 NEAR

KXNEARPERP

LONG $4.9229 × 5.07 $24.96

Take Profit +$2.56

Perps Sep 30 17:45

1 UNI

KXUNIPERP

SHORT $8.9000 × 2.80 $24.92

Take Profit +$2.53

Perps Sep 28 17:15

10 SUI

KXSUIPERP

SHORT $11.7320 × 2.13 $24.99

Take Profit +$2.88

Perps Sep 27 13:30

1 WLD

KXWLDPERP

SHORT $0.5731 × 43.62 $25.00

Take Profit +$2.56

Perps Sep 24 09:15

0.1 VVV

KXVVVPERP

SHORT $2.9351 × 8.51 $24.98

Stop Loss $2.51

Time	Strategy	Market	Side	Price	Contracts	Cost / Notional	Status	P&L
Oct 21 17:30	Perps	0.01 ZEC	LONG	$13.5608	1.84	$24.95	Stop Loss	$2.51
Oct 20 14:15	Perps	0.01 ZEC	LONG	$12.2567	2.03	$24.88	Take Profit	+$2.61
Oct 15 09:01	Perps	0.01 BCH	LONG	$2.6412	9.46	$24.99	Paper Open	+$0.86
Oct 14 13:30	Perps	1 NEAR	SHORT	$4.9983	5.00	$24.99	Paper Open	+$0.59
Oct 14 12:30	Perps	0.1 HYPE	SHORT	$8.1099	3.08	$24.98	Paper Open	+$1.16
Oct 12 23:16	Perps	0.01 ZEC	SHORT	$11.9435	2.09	$24.96	Take Profit	+$2.78
Oct 10 09:01	Perps	1 NEAR	LONG	$5.2745	4.73	$24.95	Take Profit	+$2.57
Oct 9 22:03	Perps	1K kSHIB	LONG	$5.4710	4.56	$24.95	Stop Loss	$2.76
Oct 8 17:31	Perps	1 NEAR	SHORT	$4.5345	5.51	$24.99	Stop Loss	$2.59
Oct 8 16:15	Perps	1 UNI	LONG	$7.1802	3.48	$24.99	Paper Open	$0.55
Oct 8 15:16	Perps	0.01 ZEC	SHORT	$11.6791	2.14	$24.99	Stop Loss	$2.56
Oct 8 13:01	Perps	0.1 VVV	SHORT	$2.2543	11.08	$24.98	Stop Loss	$2.62
Oct 7 10:45	Perps	1 UNI	SHORT	$7.9911	3.12	$24.93	Take Profit	+$2.53
Oct 5 14:45	Perps	0.01 BCH	SHORT	$3.1417	7.95	$24.98	Take Profit	+$2.67
Oct 2 11:15	Perps	0.1 VVV	LONG	$3.0066	8.31	$24.98	Stop Loss	$2.52
Oct 1 17:00	Perps	0.01 ZEC	SHORT	$13.4243	1.86	$24.97	Take Profit	+$2.56
Oct 1 16:15	Perps	1 NEAR	LONG	$4.9229	5.07	$24.96	Take Profit	+$2.56
Sep 30 17:45	Perps	1 UNI	SHORT	$8.9000	2.80	$24.92	Take Profit	+$2.53
Sep 28 17:15	Perps	10 SUI	SHORT	$11.7320	2.13	$24.99	Take Profit	+$2.88
Sep 27 13:30	Perps	1 WLD	SHORT	$0.5731	43.62	$25.00	Take Profit	+$2.56
Sep 24 09:15	Perps	0.1 VVV	SHORT	$2.9351	8.51	$24.98	Stop Loss	$2.51

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