KalshiEdge What is this? →

Paper Trading

Live simulation — every strategy starts with virtual $1,000 and trades against real Kalshi markets. No real money. Updated every scan.

Bitcoin 15-minute paper experiment

Compare opposite Bitcoin outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket after fees.

Paper only

The exchanges use different price sources. Both legs can lose. This is a research experiment with simulated fills, not guaranteed arbitrage.

Separate virtual cash for each venue. Kalshi fees reduce cash; Polymarket buy fees reduce shares received. Instant fills on both venues are assumed. Actual settlement outcomes are recorded independently. These results are separate from live earnings and the other paper strategies.

Kalshi paper cash
$495.20
Polymarket paper cash
$436.02
Closed pair P&L
$0.00
Closed / open pairs
0 / 15

Started with $500.00 on Kalshi and $500.00 on Polymarket. Last scan 6 seconds ago.

5 contracts per leg, checked during the final 1.0–5.0 minutes. One pair per window, up to 10 per day, with a 5% cash budget per venue.

Settled legs awaiting their counterpart: -$4.80 realized. Included in risk checks; excluded from closed pair P&L.

Latest entry check: Outside entry window

Recent paired paper trades
Oct 16 11:00–11:15 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT160715-15

Kalshi NO · debit $0.30 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792148400

Polymarket Up · 4.975505 net shares · debit $4.65 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 21:15–21:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151730-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.02 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792098900

Polymarket Up · 4.997897 net shares · debit $4.97 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 18:15–18:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151430-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.90 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792088100

Polymarket Up · 4.926493 net shares · debit $3.95 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 17:15–17:30 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151330-30

Kalshi NO · debit $0.12 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792084500

Polymarket Up · 4.989845 net shares · debit $4.86 · Awaiting settlement

Oct 15 17:00–17:15 UTC · 5 per leg Partially settled

KXBTC15M-26OCT151315-15

Kalshi NO · debit $0.27 · Payout $0.00

btc-updown-15m-1792083600

Polymarket Up · 4.979000 net shares · debit $4.70 · Awaiting settlement

Last scan 4 minutes ago — 1,228 markets evaluated

Total trades

2,137

Win rate

86.4%

Realized P&L

+$425.50

$474.67 open

Open positions

26

🌤️ Weather

Balance $493.66
P&L $405.46
Open exposure $100.22
Win rate 88.2%
W / L 1757 / 234
Last trade 3 hours ago

🏆 Sports

Balance $1,313.62
P&L +$313.62
Open exposure $0.00
Win rate 40.7%
W / L 22 / 32
Last trade 1 week ago

₿ Crypto

Balance $1,517.11
P&L +$517.11
Open exposure $0.00
Win rate 95.7%
W / L 22 / 1
Last trade 4 days ago

Perpetuals

Paper orders 58
Closed orders 43
Closed P&L +$0.23
Open notional $374.45
Open orders 15
Long / Short 9 / 6
Last order 1 day ago

Recent Trades (last 30 days)

All Weather Sports Crypto Perps
Weather Oct 22 16:01

Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Oct 23, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT23-B50.5

NO 86¢ × 8.00 $6.88
Open —
Weather Oct 22 15:31

Will the minimum temperature be >57° on Oct 23, 2026?

KXLOWTSFO-26OCT23-T57

NO 93¢ × 8.00 $7.44
Open —
Weather Oct 22 15:15

Will the minimum temperature be >48° on Oct 23, 2026?

KXLOWTNYC-26OCT23-T48

NO 93¢ × 8.00 $7.44
Open —
Weather Oct 22 12:01

Will the minimum temperature be 59-60° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTLV-26OCT22-B59.5

NO 91¢ × 10.00 $9.10
Open —
Weather Oct 22 09:15

Will the minimum temperature be >62° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTLV-26OCT22-T62

NO 90¢ × 15.00 $13.50
Open —
Weather Oct 21 23:30

Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXHIGHTATL-26OCT21-B76.5

NO 89¢ × 16.00 $14.24
Won +$1.65
Weather Oct 21 23:02

Will the minimum temperature be >62° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTSATX-26OCT22-T62

NO 86¢ × 8.00 $6.88
Open —
Weather Oct 21 20:45

Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTCHI-26OCT22-B52.5

NO 90¢ × 3.00 $2.70
Open —
Weather Oct 21 20:15

Will the minimum temperature be 61-62° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTLV-26OCT22-B61.5

NO 87¢ × 1.00 $0.87
Open —
Weather Oct 21 18:47

Will the minimum temperature be 49-50° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTBOS-26OCT22-B49.5

NO 92¢ × 16.00 $14.72
Open —
Weather Oct 21 18:15

Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTPHX-26OCT22-T71

NO 93¢ × 16.00 $14.88
Open —
Perps Oct 21 17:30

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

LONG $13.5608 × 1.84 $24.95
Stop Loss $2.51
Weather Oct 21 14:30

Will the minimum temperature be >50° on Oct 22, 2026?

KXLOWTNYC-26OCT22-T50

NO 93¢ × 17.00 $15.81
Open —
Weather Oct 21 10:01

Will the minimum temperature be 47-48° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTCHI-26OCT21-B47.5

NO 88¢ × 3.00 $2.64
Won +$0.33
Weather Oct 21 05:46

Will the minimum temperature be 70-71° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTPHX-26OCT21-B70.5

NO 90¢ × 5.00 $4.50
Won +$0.46
Weather Oct 20 22:47

Will the minimum temperature be 49-50° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTOKC-26OCT21-B49.5

NO 91¢ × 6.00 $5.46
Won +$0.50
Weather Oct 20 22:30

Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT21-B50.5

NO 93¢ × 13.00 $12.09
Won +$0.85
Weather Oct 20 22:01

Will the minimum temperature be 59-60° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTSATX-26OCT21-B59.5

NO 93¢ × 6.00 $5.58
Won +$0.39
Weather Oct 20 17:01

Will the minimum temperature be 62-63° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTHOU-26OCT21-B62.5

NO 92¢ × 13.00 $11.96
Won +$0.97
Perps Oct 20 14:15

0.01 ZEC

KXZECPERP

LONG $12.2567 × 2.03 $24.88
Take Profit +$2.61
Weather Oct 20 14:15

Will the minimum temperature be >60° on Oct 21, 2026?

KXLOWTSATX-26OCT21-T60

NO 88¢ × 7.00 $6.16
Won +$0.78
Weather Oct 20 04:01

Will the minimum temperature be 40-41° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTDEN-26OCT20-B40.5

NO 90¢ × 12.00 $10.80
Won +$1.12
Weather Oct 20 01:16

Will the minimum temperature be >51° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTDC-26OCT20-T51

NO 89¢ × 1.00 $0.89
Won +$0.10
Weather Oct 19 21:45

Will the minimum temperature be 46-47° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTBOS-26OCT20-B46.5

NO 91¢ × 13.00 $11.83
Won +$1.09
Weather Oct 19 19:00

Will the minimum temperature be 61-62° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTHOU-26OCT20-B61.5

NO 92¢ × 13.00 $11.96
Won +$0.97
Weather Oct 19 18:45

Will the minimum temperature be <51° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT20-T51

NO 89¢ × 14.00 $12.46
Won +$1.44
Weather Oct 19 18:30

Will the minimum temperature be 48-49° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTCHI-26OCT20-B48.5

NO 93¢ × 14.00 $13.02
Won +$0.91
Weather Oct 19 17:15

Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTMIA-26OCT20-B75.5

NO 92¢ × 14.00 $12.88
Won +$1.04
Weather Oct 19 16:45

Will the minimum temperature be 46-47° on Oct 19, 2026?

KXLOWTDEN-26OCT19-B46.5

NO 92¢ × 15.00 $13.80
Lost $13.88
Weather Oct 19 16:15

Will the minimum temperature be <40° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTDEN-26OCT20-T40

NO 93¢ × 15.00 $13.95
Won +$0.98
Weather Oct 19 16:01

Will the minimum temperature be >55° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTSFO-26OCT20-T55

NO 93¢ × 15.00 $13.95
Won +$0.98
Weather Oct 19 15:45

Will the minimum temperature be 48-49° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTBOS-26OCT20-B48.5

NO 91¢ × 16.00 $14.56
Won +$1.34
Weather Oct 19 14:30

Will the minimum temperature be >65° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTLV-26OCT20-T65

NO 91¢ × 10.00 $9.10
Won +$0.84
Weather Oct 19 14:15

Will the minimum temperature be >49° on Oct 20, 2026?

KXLOWTCHI-26OCT20-T49

NO 92¢ × 17.00 $15.64
Won +$1.27
Weather Oct 19 05:16

Will the minimum temperature be 44-45° on Oct 19, 2026?

KXLOWTDC-26OCT19-B44.5

NO 86¢ × 10.00 $8.60
Won +$1.31
Weather Oct 19 04:31

Will the minimum temperature be 42-43° on Oct 19, 2026?

KXLOWTOKC-26OCT19-B42.5

NO 93¢ × 4.00 $3.72
Won +$0.26
Weather Oct 18 23:48

Will the maximum temperature be 58-59° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXHIGHNY-26OCT18-B58.5

NO 93¢ × 3.00 $2.79
Won +$0.19
Weather Oct 18 23:01

Will the minimum temperature be >56° on Oct 19, 2026?

KXLOWTSATX-26OCT19-T56

NO 90¢ × 8.00 $7.20
Won +$0.74
Weather Oct 18 21:45

Will the minimum temperature be <46° on Oct 19, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT19-T46

NO 89¢ × 17.00 $15.13
Won +$1.75
Weather Oct 18 14:45

Will the minimum temperature be >46° on Oct 19, 2026?

KXLOWTCHI-26OCT19-T46

NO 93¢ × 15.00 $13.95
Won +$0.98
Weather Oct 18 00:01

Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTSATX-26OCT18-B50.5

NO 89¢ × 7.00 $6.23
Won +$0.72
Weather Oct 17 22:45

Will the minimum temperature be 46-47° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT18-B46.5

NO 86¢ × 16.00 $13.76
Won +$2.10
Weather Oct 17 21:45

Will the minimum temperature be 42-43° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT18-B42.5

NO 87¢ × 10.00 $8.70
Lost $8.78
Weather Oct 17 21:15

Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTPHX-26OCT18-T69

NO 92¢ × 16.00 $14.72
Won +$1.19
Crypto Oct 17 20:02

Bitcoin price range on Oct 18, 2026?

KXBTC-26OCT1817-T91249.99

NO 80¢ × 93.00 $74.40
Won +$17.55
Weather Oct 17 19:17

Will the minimum temperature be <40° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT18-T40

NO 92¢ × 16.00 $14.72
Won +$1.19
Weather Oct 17 19:02

Will the maximum temperature be >69° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXHIGHTMIN-26OCT18-T69

NO 91¢ × 2.00 $1.82
Lost $1.84
Weather Oct 17 18:15

Will the minimum temperature be <43° on Oct 17, 2026?

KXLOWTAUS-26OCT17-T43

NO 93¢ × 16.00 $14.88
Won +$1.04
Weather Oct 17 15:16

Will the minimum temperature be 35-36° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTOKC-26OCT18-B35.5

NO 93¢ × 7.00 $6.51
Won +$0.45
Weather Oct 17 14:45

Will the minimum temperature be 58-59° on Oct 18, 2026?

KXLOWTSFO-26OCT18-B58.5

NO 90¢ × 10.00 $9.00
Lost $9.07

Want this running on your own Kalshi account? Get started →